Calculate your trading expectancy, projected profit, and simulate equity curves.
Expectancy measures the average amount you expect to win (or lose) per trade over a large number of trades. It combines your win rate and your reward-to-risk ratio into a single number that tells you whether your trading system is profitable.
A 90% win rate means nothing if your losses are 10x your wins. Conversely, many profitable traders win only 30–40% of their trades but have a high reward-to-risk ratio. What matters is the combination of how often you win and how much you win relative to your losses.
R (reward-to-risk) normalizes your results regardless of position size. A 2R winner means you made twice what you risked. Thinking in R lets you evaluate your edge independently of account size. A system that averages +0.5R per trade is profitable at any scale.
If your expectancy is positive, your system makes money over time — even with losing streaks. If it's negative, no amount of discipline will make it profitable. Expectancy is the single most important metric for evaluating a trading strategy.
It depends entirely on your R. A 40% win rate is highly profitable with an average R of 3. A 70% win rate can be unprofitable if your losses are much larger than your wins. Focus on expectancy, not win rate alone.
Expectancy is your average profit per trade expressed in R. It's calculated as (Win Rate × Average R) − (Loss Rate × 1). A positive expectancy means your system is profitable over time.
Losing streaks are a natural consequence of probability. Even with a 60% win rate, there's a meaningful chance of hitting 5+ losses in a row over 100 trades. This is called probability clustering and it's completely normal.
No. This calculator uses statistical models based on your inputs. Real trading involves slippage, emotions, changing market conditions, and execution errors. Use this as a planning tool, not a guarantee.
It generates a random sequence of wins and losses based on your win rate, showing one possible path your account could take. Each re-run produces a different curve, illustrating the randomness inherent in trading outcomes.